Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia's GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked much more encouraging, i. e. well above what could have been expected amid the suddenly decelerated GDP growth in the first quarter.
As in the years to come the regulatory environment is likely to remain unchanged in Russia, its economic growth may be partially supported by some improvements in the macroeconomic policy.
In addition to the CBR’s potential lowering of the key rate Minfin can also make its own contribution to the simplification and long-term stability of the financial system if it decides to stop depositing money with banks and to reduce its role as a major liquidity regulator via quantitative measures. Such actions by Minfin would also help reduce interest rates for borrowers other than financial institutions and support economic growth.